Is this the last chance saloon for those changing jobs? If there is a recession, the labor market may not be so rosy.

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By Andrew Keshner

People considering changing jobs now may land a higher salary, but some employers are applying the ‘first in, first out’ rule during an economic downturn

Should I stay or should I go?

It’s a song that might cross the minds of workers who have stuck to their jobs during the pandemic, watching others move on to new positions, careers — and higher wages.

That includes people who filled the 315,000 jobs added to the economy in August, a number slightly lower than the 318,000 jobs Wall Street analysts expected during the month.

It could be the last-ditch saloon for job seekers who want to earn some extra cash before – as some economists predict – a looming recession.

On the one hand, jumping for a new job might be a good chance to get a better salary when everything is so expensive.

People who switch jobs more than doubled their median annual salary increase (16.1%) compared to people who stay in their jobs, who saw a 7.6% increase, ADP Plus said. early this week. Data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and polls from the Pew Research Center also show broader wage growth for job changers.

The average hourly wage for all workers rose to $32.36, a 5.2% year-over-year increase, according to the August jobs report. This is still less than the inflation rate of 8.5% in July.

Will the music stop for the job market?

On the other hand, talk of the recession continues to rumble and the Federal Reserve looks set to inflict “some pain” in its bid to hike interest rates to break inflation, which is at its highest level since. 40 years.

In fact, fear of a potential economic downturn makes people 55% more likely to start a job search than wait six more months, according to a survey released Thursday by Qualtrics and SAP.

Will the music stop for a job market that, for now, is leaning towards job seekers? If this happens, how can people better navigate today’s work landscape?

“In the summer of 2021, I think we were all pretty confident saying, ‘You know what, you’re going to have an even better opportunity in six months. And I think it’s more uncertain,” said Guy Berger, senior economist at LinkedIn.

“Could it be that if you wait another six months, you will have a better one in six months? Yes it’s possible. It could be worse – and I think that’s where it changed,” he said. .

Others say it’s always worth making the switch.

“There is never a last chance at the saloon,” said Ryan Sutton, district president of Robert Half (RHI), a national recruiting and placement firm, which obviously has a vested interest in people accepting new jobs.

“The saloon is open 24/7,” he adds. “There is no closing time in the labor market.”

A slowdown, for example, could scare off some job seekers and reduce competition, said Sutton, which helps tech, advertising and marketing firms find talent in the New York and New England area. .

Before you make a decision, here’s how to make the most of the moment:

Do you know your industry

Those who weren’t part of the big quit or shakeup may be more risk averse and “conscientious” when planning career changes, Sutton said.

If so, those potential job seekers should start researching now, Sutton noted.

Sutton suggested a few questions to ask: What type of growth has the company experienced recently? What are the prospects for the immediate future? How has the company determined layoffs during previous downturns – performance, who was hired last, or a combination of both?

There can be a range of factors that prevent people from changing jobs, Berger noted. This includes family obligations and the flexibility of working remotely. Additionally, some industries are better positioned than others to handle downturns.

In recent LinkedIn research, hiring in August — measured by users adding a new employer to their profile — was 6.5% higher than the previous month, but still 8.5% lower than in August. april.

Friday’s report showed the white-collar “professional and business services” sector leading the way with 68,000 new hires. Health care and retail also posted “notable gains,” the Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

Start by talking with your employer

If workers are considering exiting because of pay, even if they otherwise like where they are, Sutton suggested talking to your bosses. An application for review and a raise based on market rates for your skills and experience should ideally take place before the job search, he said.

Workers, who may tend to be loyal and diligent, usually find a new job and then return to their employer for a counter offer. Sutton said it can cause workplace friction if the employee accepts a counter-offer and stays.

Better to avoid this cycle of guilt by being upfront at the start, Sutton said. “It’s almost a liberating conversation because now the guilt is gone. If you haven’t had a company exam in the last six to 12 months, then ask for one,” he said. declared.

Don’t expect an immediate raise when the discussion takes place — but expect management to pave the way for more cash in the coming months, perhaps through more responsibility, Sutton.3 added. To look outside

But if the conversation is happening and the worker doesn’t like what he’s hearing, Sutton said that’s when he can fast-track his job search.

That means acting with “discretion” that would apply to research at all times, and keeping any discussion of outside research confidential with colleagues or people invited to offer references, Sutton said.

The initial pay talk could be a cue to management that a person’s time at work could be at a premium, Sutton acknowledged. But no job search is without risk, he noted.

“If you find there are opportunities, if you feel really good about the business and are very clear-headed about the risks you’re taking, it’s worth it,” Berger said.

“I still think the time is as good to act now as it has been for the past two years,” Sutton added.

Read also:

Opinion: I’ve set salary policies at big companies – here are 3 secrets to getting a raise

White-collar graduates are vulnerable as companies lay off workers and cancel offers – how to protect your job search against the recession

‘Best Job in America’ pays $145,000 and offers generous work-life balance

-Andrew Keshner

 

(END) Dow Jones Newswire

09-10-22 0507ET

Copyright (c) 2022 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

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